Fallacy of expertise

Expertise is all about knowledge and skill in a particular field. So, what is the fallacy of expertise? Psychologists say that we over estimate our own capabilities. There was a study conducted by researchers to analyze how experienced surgeons diagnose diseases. The researchers had also developed a simple statistical model for the diagnosis. It was found that the statistical model was more accurate than the expert diagnosis. There may be many reasons why the expert diagnosis is not correct. Our brain uses lots of short cuts during thinking, watching etc. Since the expert believes that he knows the field thoroughly( which is an over estimation by the way!), he may be a little lazy to analyze the facts in detail and arrives at a decision hastily. Or, it is also possible that his ‘mental model’ about the conditions that are associated with the disease may be wrong!. There may also be many other cognitive biases at play.( Hopefully, more on these in a later blog!)

It is generally found that a group of people make better judgment than individuals. This is called the ‘crowd wisdom’. Remember an old saying – ‘ Two heads are better than one’?. This has been proven by research. So, what does this mean to us? We can make better decisions in life situations, in work etc, by consulting more people about the situation. Remember though that the people you consult should have genuine interest either in you or the problem at hand.

Software teams for example can come up with better architecture, estimation or features for a product by brainstorming rather than working in silos. This leads to better products, better architectures, better estimations etc.This circumvents some of the errors made by experts in the team.

Powered by ScribeFire.